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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-4 Wochen | 45-60 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |