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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations 5 Whys |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-4 Wochen | 15-30 min | 2-8 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 2-6 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Root cause notes, Countermeasures | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations |