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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Operations MORT Analysis |  Operations Fault Tree Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps. | For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 2-6 h | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | MORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic Recommendations | Fault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | Root causeSafetySystemicIncident | RiskRoot causeSafety |