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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Operations Fault Tree Analysis |  Operations Barrier Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 2-6 h | 2-6 h | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 3-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | Fault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | RiskRoot causeSafety | Root causeSafetyIncident |