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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Operations Barrier Analysis |  Operations MORT Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. | For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 2-6 h | 2-4 h | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog | MORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic Recommendations |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | Root causeSafetyIncident | Root causeSafetySystemicIncident |