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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Constraint Analysis |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When an initiative stalls, the limit often lies not in the idea but in hard or soft boundary conditions. Constraint Analysis separates these limits and shows which of them can actually be shaped. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 30-90 min | 30-90 min | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 1-10 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Constraint List, Hard/Soft Classification, Option Impact Notes, Decision Boundaries | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ConstraintsDecisionPlanningOptions | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |