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Criterion
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration for Constraint Analysis.
Decision Making
Constraint Analysis
Scenario Planning method illustration showing its working structure
Business Strategy
Scenario Planning
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Purposedifferent
On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.When an initiative stalls, the limit often lies not in the idea but in hard or soft boundary conditions. Constraint Analysis separates these limits and shows which of them can actually be shaped.Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowHighLow
Timedifferent
15-45 min30-90 min0.5-2 Tage20–45 min
Participantsdifferent
1-82-84-12Small cross-functional group
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesConstraint List, Hard/Soft Classification, Option Impact Notes, Decision BoundariesScenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust OptionsRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
ConstraintsDecisionPlanningOptions
StrategyUncertaintyPlanning
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
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