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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Constraint Analysis |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When an initiative stalls, the limit often lies not in the idea but in hard or soft boundary conditions. Constraint Analysis separates these limits and shows which of them can actually be shaped. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 30-90 min | 1-3 h | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 1-8 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Constraint List, Hard/Soft Classification, Option Impact Notes, Decision Boundaries | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ConstraintsDecisionPlanningOptions | SensemakingDecisionRationale | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |