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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Knowledge Modeling Concept Mapping |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Concept Mapping arranges terms and relationships in a network that makes subject-matter connections tangible. It fits when a topic needs to be understood structurally rather than linearly. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-2 h | laufend | 10-30 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 2-12 | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Concept Map, Relationship Labels, Knowledge Gaps | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | KnowledgeConceptsMappingSensemaking | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting |