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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Product Strategy DIBB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 45-90 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-2 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 4-12 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationExpertsForecasting | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis |