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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Agile Affinity Estimation |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 45-90 min | 30-90 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 3-12 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |