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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Product Strategy Lean Canvas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | When an early product bet still has too many open points, it brings target group, problem, and assumptions into a single view. It condenses the idea so core risks become nameable. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 45-60 min | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 2-8 | 1-6 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Lean Canvas, Core Assumptions, Experiment Backlog |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | LeanStartupValidationMVP | StartupLeanAssumptionsBusiness model |