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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Strategy Lean Canvas |  Innovation Lean Startup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When an early product bet still has too many open points, it brings target group, problem, and assumptions into a single view. It condenses the idea so core risks become nameable. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 45-60 min | 45-90 min | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 1-6 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Lean Canvas, Core Assumptions, Experiment Backlog | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | StartupLeanAssumptionsBusiness model | LeanStartupValidationMVP |