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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Knowledge Modeling Knowledge Mapping |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | Knowledge Mapping makes knowledge, gaps, and transfer paths visible across a field. It fits when expertise should not just exist but also be findable and transferable. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 45-60 min | 1-3 h | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 3-12 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Knowledge Map, Critical Knowledge Areas, Transfer Plan | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tags1 shared | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | KnowledgeMappingRisk | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |