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Criterion
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of Experiment Canvas with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Experiment Canvas
Purposedifferent
On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small.When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumMediumLow
Timedifferent
15-45 min45-60 min1-5 Tage30-60 min
Participantsdifferent
1-82-8Nutzertraffic1-5
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingClick Data, Interest Signal, Learning DecisionCompleted Experiment Canvas, Success Metric
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis
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