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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Decision Making Constraint Analysis |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When an initiative stalls, the limit often lies not in the idea but in hard or soft boundary conditions. Constraint Analysis separates these limits and shows which of them can actually be shaped. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 45-60 min | 30-90 min | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 2-8 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Constraint List, Hard/Soft Classification, Option Impact Notes, Decision Boundaries | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ConstraintsDecisionPlanningOptions | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |