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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-3 h | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 10-30 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | SensemakingDecisionRationale | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting |