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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Business Strategy Value Chain Analysis |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-3 h | Half day | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 3-8 | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Value Chain Map, Lever List | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | SensemakingDecisionRationale | StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight |