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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Business Strategy Value Chain Analysis |  Decision Making Red Teaming |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-3 h | Half day | 1-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 3-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Value Chain Map, Lever List | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | SensemakingDecisionRationale | StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis | RiskDecisionSensemaking |