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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-3 h | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | SensemakingDecisionRationale | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight |