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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile Affinity Estimation |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |  Business Strategy Business Model Stress Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. | A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 30-90 min | Half day | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-12 | 3-12 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items | Leverage Map, Action Strategy | Stress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy | StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis |