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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile Affinity Estimation |  Growth Funnel Analysis |  Growth Flywheel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. | When many visitors or users drop off along the way, the reason behind the number often stays hidden. Funnel Analysis exposes these transitions and makes visible exactly where the path collapses. | Growth often breaks down where a reinforcing mechanism builds up too much friction. A Flywheel shows the cycle of value, repetition, and reinforcement meant to sustain growth. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 30-90 min | 1-3 h | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-12 | 1-5 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items | Funnel report, Drop-off analysis, Optimization hypotheses | Flywheel Map, Friction Points, Growth Levers, Experiment Backlog |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | AnalyticsConversionGrowth | GrowthRetentionConversion |