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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile Affinity Estimation |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 30-90 min | 60-120 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-12 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |