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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Growth A/B Testing |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-6 | 4-12 Experten | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |