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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Growth A/B Testing |  Business Strategy Value Chain Analysis |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. | Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-4 Wochen | Half day | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-6 | 3-8 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary | Value Chain Map, Lever List | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation | StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |