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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Growth A/B Testing |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-4 Wochen | 60-120 min | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-6 | 2-8 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |