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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Operations A3 Problem Solving |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations 5 Whys |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | For a complex deviation with several people involved, the method bundles problem, analysis, and decision onto one page. It creates a shared working space where causes, countermeasures, and follow-up fit together. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen | 15-30 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-5 | 6-30 Experten | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | A3 Report, Action Plan, Root Cause Analysis | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Root cause notes, Countermeasures |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | LeanProblem solvingCoachingOperations | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving |