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| Criterion |  Operations PDCA Cycle |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For an improvement that still has to prove itself in everyday work, the method runs it through small learning loops. It connects planning, checking, and standardization into a repeatable learning mode. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1 h bis mehrere Wochen | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 15-45 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | PDCA Log, Experiment Plan, Learning Outcome, Standard Change | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | Continuous improvementLeanExperiments | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |