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| Criterion |  Operations PDCA Cycle |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For an improvement that still has to prove itself in everyday work, the method runs it through small learning loops. It connects planning, checking, and standardization into a repeatable learning mode. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1 h bis mehrere Wochen | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PDCA Log, Experiment Plan, Learning Outcome, Standard Change | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | Continuous improvementLeanExperiments | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |