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| Criterion |  Operations PDCA Cycle |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For an improvement that still has to prove itself in everyday work, the method runs it through small learning loops. It connects planning, checking, and standardization into a repeatable learning mode. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1 h bis mehrere Wochen | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten | 2-12 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PDCA Log, Experiment Plan, Learning Outcome, Standard Change | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | Continuous improvementLeanExperiments | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationForecastingFlow |