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| Criterion |  Operations PDCA Cycle |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For an improvement that still has to prove itself in everyday work, the method runs it through small learning loops. It connects planning, checking, and standardization into a repeatable learning mode. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1 h bis mehrere Wochen | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | PDCA Log, Experiment Plan, Learning Outcome, Standard Change | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | Continuous improvementLeanExperiments | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |