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| Criterion |  Operations PDCA Cycle |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For an improvement that still has to prove itself in everyday work, the method runs it through small learning loops. It connects planning, checking, and standardization into a repeatable learning mode. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 1 h bis mehrere Wochen | 10-30 min je Item | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | PDCA Log, Experiment Plan, Learning Outcome, Standard Change | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | Continuous improvementLeanExperiments | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |