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| Criterion |  Operations PDCA Cycle |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For an improvement that still has to prove itself in everyday work, the method runs it through small learning loops. It connects planning, checking, and standardization into a repeatable learning mode. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 1 h bis mehrere Wochen | laufend | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-12 | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | PDCA Log, Experiment Plan, Learning Outcome, Standard Change | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | Continuous improvementLeanExperiments | EstimationForecastingFlow | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |