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| Criterion |  Knowledge Modeling PARA Method |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The PARA Method organizes knowledge into Projects, Areas, Resources, and Archives. It creates order when digital notes, files, and tasks no longer cleanly fit current work. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-3 h Setup, laufend | 10-30 min je Item | 15-45 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 1 | 1-8 | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PARA Structure, Project Notes, Knowledge Archive | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | KnowledgeProductivityOrganization | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationExpertsForecasting |