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| Criterion |  Product Discovery Opportunity Interview |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When opportunities are still hidden behind signals of need, it structures conversations around needs and obstacles. It looks for patterns that lead to new product opportunities. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-60 min je Interview | 2-4 h | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 5-12 Interviews | 3-8 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Interview Notes, Opportunity Themes, Customer Quotes | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | DiscoveryInterviewsOpportunityCustomer | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |