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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | laufend | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-5 Tage | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 4-12 Experten | Nutzertraffic | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |