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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Systems Thinking Intervention Mapping |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | Intervention Mapping translates a need for change into a planned, evaluable program. The method connects target group, determinants, actions, and measurement into a traceable chain. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | laufend | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-5 Tage | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 4-12 Experten | 4-12 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Logic Model, Change Objectives, Intervention Components, Evaluation Plan | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ChangeSystems thinkingCapability | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange |