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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Knowledge Modeling Knowledge Mapping |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | Knowledge Mapping makes knowledge, gaps, and transfer paths visible across a field. It fits when expertise should not just exist but also be findable and transferable. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | laufend | 30-90 min | 1-3 h | 10-30 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-10 | 3-12 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Knowledge Map, Critical Knowledge Areas, Transfer Plan | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | KnowledgeMappingRisk | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting |