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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | laufend | 1-3 h | 1-5 Tage | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 4-10 | Nutzertraffic | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |