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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Experiment Canvas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | laufend | 10-30 min je Item | 1-5 Tage | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-8 | Nutzertraffic | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Completed Experiment Canvas, Success Metric |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |