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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Operations MORT Analysis |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | laufend | 10-30 min je Item | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-8 | 2-6 | 3-10 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | MORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic Recommendations | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | Root causeSafetySystemicIncident | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline |