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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | laufend | 1-5 Tage | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | Nutzertraffic | 4-12 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | EstimationExpertsForecasting | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |