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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | laufend | 1-5 Tage | 10-30 min je Item | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | Nutzertraffic | 1-8 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |