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Criterion
Paper illustration for NoEstimates.
Agile
NoEstimates
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Purposedifferent
When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowHighMedium
Timedifferent
laufend1-5 Tage1-4 Wochen1-5 Tage
Participantsdifferent
2-12Nutzertraffic6-30 ExpertenNutzertraffic
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncAsyncAsyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing RulesInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesClick Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision
Tagsno overlap
EstimationForecastingFlow
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery
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