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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | laufend | 1-5 Tage | 45-90 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | Nutzertraffic | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |