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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | laufend | 20–45 min | 1-5 Tage | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | Small cross-functional group | Nutzertraffic | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |