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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | laufend | 15-45 min | 1-5 Tage | 10-30 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-8 | Nutzertraffic | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting |