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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | laufend | 15-45 min | Half day | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-8 | 3-12 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Leverage Map, Action Strategy | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |