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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | laufend | 15-45 min | 60-120 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-8 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |