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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Business Strategy Business Model Canvas |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | The Business Model Canvas condenses a business model to its key building blocks and assumptions. It makes variants quickly comparable and reveals gaps before validation or implementation begins. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | laufend | 15-45 min | 1-2 h | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-8 | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Business Model Canvas, Assumption List, Business Hypotheses | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | Business modelStrategyValueInnovation | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |